New modeling suggests that a worldwide move toward healthier diets, more efficient farming, and much less food waste could significantly reshape agriculture by 2050, according to ScienceDaily.
The analysis, published in Nature by researchers from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Cornell University, and 10 modeling teams, found that global farmland use could fall by as much as 6% compared with current trends. It also estimated that total livestock production value could drop by 42%, or about $630 billion, from 2020 levels.
The steepest decline would come in ruminant animals such as beef cattle, sheep, and goats. The study projects that sector’s global value could fall by 70%, or $274 billion, by 2050, alongside roughly 400 million fewer ruminant animals worldwide than in 2020.
Plant-based foods would move in the opposite direction. The combined global value of vegetables, fruits, nuts, and legumes could rise by 57%, or $890 billion, while the researchers say agriculture-related net CO2 emissions from land-use change could be 85% lower by 2050 than in 2020.
The study also forecasts different regional impacts. In the United States, total agricultural production value could decline by 21% by 2050, while crop production rises and livestock production falls sharply. India could see total agricultural production value increase, while Europe could see a sizable decline.
