Scientists have identified a forecasting method that could estimate how strong the Sun’s next activity cycle will be as much as seven years before its peak, according to ScienceDaily.
The technique centers on a newly recognized “switch-off” stage in the solar cycle, when the Sun’s most intense space weather seems to stop suddenly. Researchers say the number of sunspots present at that point is closely tied to the highest sunspot count in the following cycle.
Using the approach, the team has already made an early projection for Solar Cycle 26. Their initial estimate suggests it could be moderate, with a sunspot number of about 100 to 120, which would make it similar to or weaker than Solar Cycle 25.
Professor Sandra Chapman of the University of Warwick said the Sun does not ease into and out of activity gradually. Instead, she said the most extreme space weather appears to switch off at a specific point in each cycle, giving scientists a new way to predict what comes next. She added that the forecast should become more accurate in about two years, once Solar Cycle 25 reaches that same point and direct observations can be used.
The findings are being presented this week at the Royal Astronomical Society’s National Astronomy Meeting in Birmingham. The research also comes after recent strong solar activity, including major geomagnetic storms and bright auroras seen across the UK in 2024.
