Global warming has sped up since about 2015, according to a new analysis from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, reported by ScienceDaily. Researchers say this is the first statistically significant evidence that the planet’s long-term warming rate is increasing.
The study found that temperatures have risen at an estimated rate of about 0.35°C per decade over the past 10 years, depending on the dataset used. That is well above the average rate from 1970 to 2015, which was just under 0.2°C per decade, and higher than any previous decade since modern temperature records began in 1880.
To reach the result, the researchers removed known natural influences such as El Niño, volcanic eruptions and changes in solar activity. They analyzed five major global temperature datasets, including records from NASA, NOAA, HadCRUT, Berkeley Earth and ERA5, and said the accelerated warming showed up across all of them.
According to the study’s lead author Stefan Rahmstorf, the adjusted data show more than 98 percent statistical certainty that global warming has accelerated since 2015. The researchers used multiple methods to test the trend, and both supported the same conclusion.
The team did not set out to explain exactly why the acceleration is happening, but said climate models can produce periods of faster warming. Rahmstorf said that if the recent rate continues, the world could exceed the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit before 2030, depending on how quickly carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels are reduced.
